Client Perspective 2026: SpaceX Goes Public

Background

SpaceX — formally Space Exploration Technologies Corp. — is Elon Musk's aerospace and satellite company. It operates across three business segments: Space (rocket launches and government contracts), Connectivity (Starlink satellite internet), and AI (Artificial Intelligence). The company is best known for its reusable rocket program and for operating the world's largest active satellite network, with over 7,500 satellites in low Earth orbit.

 The company is targeting an IPO (Initial Public Offering) on or around June 12, 2026, at an estimated valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion and is looking to raise as much as $75 billion — which would surpass Saudi Aramco's 2019 listing as the largest IPO in history. By market cap alone, SpaceX would enter the public markets as one of the ten most valuable companies in the United States.

The Business

Starlink has become a significant communications infrastructure provider globally, with growing commercial, government, and defense contracts. The launch business holds substantial market share in a sector with high barriers to entry. SpaceX has also recently acquired xAI — Elon Musk's artificial intelligence venture — adding an early-stage but fast-growing dimension to the company's profile.

The financials are worth understanding clearly. In 2025, SpaceX reported revenue of $18.67 billion, up 33% year-over-year. However, the company posted a net operating loss of $4.94 billion for the year. Revenue growth slowed further in Q1 2026, rising just 15% while operating losses widened to $1.9 billion, driven by heavy spending on rockets and AI (Artificial Intelligence) infrastructure. The company carries $25 billion in forward contractual commitments, which reflects the capital intensity of its plans.

At a $1.75 trillion valuation, SpaceX would trade at a price-to-sales ratio of roughly 100x — higher than any current S&P 500 member. That multiple reflects investor expectations for what the company may earn over the next decade or more, not what it earns today.

S&P 500 Inclusion

One of the more discussed aspects of this IPO has been whether SpaceX would receive expedited entry into major stock market indexes — particularly the S&P 500, which underlies hundreds of billions of dollars in index funds and ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds).

SpaceX and its underwriters reportedly lobbied for rule changes that would have allowed faster inclusion. S&P's competitors — Nasdaq and FTSE (Financial Times Stock Exchange) Russell — did adjust their rules to accommodate large, newly public companies. However, on June 4, 2026, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced it would not change its eligibility requirements, declining to waive its 12-month seasoning period, public float requirements, or GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) profitability standards.

As Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at B. Riley Wealth, noted: "It speaks highly of the credibility of S&P Dow Jones Indices to be rules-based and make sure there's profitability before entrance to the index."

In practical terms:

     SpaceX cannot enter the S&P 500 until at least mid-2027, after 12 months of public trading and — assuming it achieves GAAP profitability — meeting the financial thresholds required for inclusion.

     The S&P 500 weights companies based on shares available to the public, not total market cap. SpaceX is offering fewer than 5% of its total shares in the IPO, with Elon Musk retaining approximately 85% ownership, which significantly limits the float.

     Had SpaceX been included immediately based on float alone, estimates suggest an initial S&P 500 weight of approximately 0.5%. If weighted on full market cap rather than float, that figure would rise to roughly 2.4% of the S&P 500 and over 4% of the Nasdaq-100 — just ahead of Tesla as the seventh-largest holding in both indexes.

     Index funds tracking the S&P 500 would have faced an estimated $22–27 billion in automatic buying of SpaceX shares, at whatever price the market had set — potentially including an elevated post-IPO price.

When SpaceX does eventually qualify for S&P 500 inclusion, likely sometime in 2027, the size of its position in index funds will depend largely on how much additional stock has been released to the public by that point.

The Nasdaq-100

Nasdaq did update its rules ahead of this IPO. Under its revised methodology, any newly listed company ranking in the top 40 by market cap may enter the Nasdaq-100 after just 15 trading days, with the minimum float requirement eliminated. SpaceX would likely qualify for Nasdaq100 inclusion on a much faster timeline, meaning index funds tracking QQQ (the Invesco Nasdaq-100 ETF) and related products may begin to hold SpaceX well before S&P 500 funds are required to.

A Note on Timing

SpaceX is a company with real scale, established infrastructure, and long-horizon ambitions that have drawn serious institutional interest. That much is clear.

It is also entering the public markets without a track record of GAAP profitability, with slowing revenue growth relative to its valuation, and with the vast majority of shares remaining in private hands. There is no established trading history, no price discovery built over time, and early investors in IPOs frequently sell into the initial enthusiasm — often pushing prices down in the months that follow the debut.

Buying into any IPO at launch carries uncertainty that diminishes the longer a company has been publicly traded. For a company of this size and complexity, jumping in immediately essentially represents a gamble — not on the quality of the business, but on whether the opening price is the right one.

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This article is for general educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. IPO investments carry significant risks including limited trading history, price volatility, and uncertain valuation. Information presented is believed accurate as of publication and is subject to change. Please consult with your PTM advisor before making any investment decisions. For complete disclosures, including our Form ADV Part 2A, visit www.ptmwealth.com/disclosures. PTM Wealth Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser.